Joint Analysis of the Epidemic Evolution and Human Mobility During the First Wave of COVID-19 in Spain: Retrospective Study.

BACKGROUND: The initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic placed a tremendous strain on health care systems worldwide. To mitigate the spread of the virus, many countries implemented stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which significantly altered human behavior both before and after their enactment. Despite these efforts, a precise assessment of the impact and efficacy of these NPIs, as well as the extent of human behavioral changes, remained elusive. OBJECTIVE: In this study, we conducted a retrospective analysis of the initial wave of COVID-19 in Spain to better comprehend the influence of NPIs and their interaction with human behavior. Such investigations are vital for devising future mitigation strategies to combat COVID-19 and enhance epidemic preparedness more broadly. METHODS: We used a combination of national and regional retrospective analyses of pandemic incidence alongside large-scale mobility data to assess the impact and timing of government-implemented NPIs in combating COVID-19. Additionally, we compared these findings with a model-based inference of hospitalizations and fatalities. This model-based approach enabled us to construct counterfactual scenarios that gauged the consequences of delayed initiation of epidemic response measures. RESULTS: Our analysis demonstrated that the pre-national lockdown epidemic response, encompassing regional measures and heightened individual awareness, significantly contributed to reducing the disease burden in Spain. The mobility data indicated that people adjusted their behavior in response to the regional epidemiological situation before the nationwide lockdown was implemented. Counterfactual scenarios suggested that without this early epidemic response, there would have been an estimated 45,400 (95% CI 37,400-58,000) fatalities and 182,600 (95% CI 150,400-233,800) hospitalizations compared to the reported figures of 27,800 fatalities and 107,600 hospitalizations, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings underscore the significance of self-implemented prevention measures by the population and regional NPIs before the national lockdown in Spain. The study also emphasizes the necessity for prompt and precise data quantification prior to enacting enforced measures. This highlights the critical interplay between NPIs, epidemic progression, and human behavior. This interdependence presents a challenge in predicting the impact of NPIs before they are implemented.

Pandemics and Suicide Rates in Spain: From the Spanish Flu to COVID-19.

Objective: The aim of this study was to examine suicide rates in Spain during the COVID-19 pandemic and the influenza pandemic of 1918-1920.Methods: Data on deaths by cause for the periods 1910-1925 and 2016-2020 were obtained from the National Statistics Institute of Spain.Results: During the Spanish influenza pandemic, a peak of deaths in 1918 due to influenza, acute bronchitis, pneumonia, and other respiratory diseases coincided with an increase in suicides (from 5.9 in 1917 to 6.6 per 100,000 population in 1918). The pattern was repeated in the COVID-19 pandemic during 2020, with an increase in suicides from 7.8 in 2019 to 8.3 per 100,000 population in 2020. In both cases, the male:female suicide ratio was reduced in similar proportion, with a higher net increase in the number of suicides among males but a higher percentage increase among females.Conclusions: Albeit limited, there is evidence that the pandemics may have affected suicide rates. However, the effect was most likely due to precipitation of different diathesis-stressor factors in each setting, given the different historical contexts.

Mental Health Disorders and Coping Strategies in Healthcare Workers during the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Analytical Cross-Sectional Study in Southeastern Mexico

Mental health disorders are relatively common in the general population and were already an important issue for the healthcare sector before COVID-19. COVID-19, being a worldwide crucial event and evidently a great stressor has increased both the prevalence and incidence of these. Therefore, it is evident that COVID-19 and mental health disorders are closely related. Moreover, several coping strategies exist to endure said disorders such as depression and anxiety, which are used by the population to confront stressors, and healthcare workers are not the exception. This was an analytical cross-sectional study, conducted from August to November 2022, via an online survey. Prevalence and severity of depression, anxiety, and stress were assessed via the DASS-21 test, and coping strategies were assessed via the CSSHW test. The sample consisted of 256 healthcare workers and of those, 133 (52%) were males with a mean age of 40.4 ± 10.35, and 123 (48%) were females with a mean age of 37.28 ± 9.33. Depression was prevalent in 43%, anxiety in 48%, and stress in 29.7%. Comorbidities were a significant risk factor for both depression and anxiety with an OR of 10.9 and 4.18, respectively. The psychiatric background was a risk factor for depression with an OR of 2.17, anxiety with an OR of 2.43, and stress with an OR of 3.58. The age difference was an important factor in the development of depression and anxiety. The maladaptive coping mechanism was prevalent in 90 subjects and was a risk factor for depression (OR of 2.94), anxiety (OR of 4.46) and stress (OR of 3.68). The resolution coping mechanism was a protective factor for depression (OR of 0.35), anxiety (OR of 0.22), and stress (OR of 0.52). This study shows that mental health disorders are highly prevalent among healthcare workers in Mexico and that coping strategies are associated with their prevalence. It also implies that not only occupations, age, and comorbidities might affect mental health, but also the way patients confront reality and the behavior and decisions they take towards stressors.

Genetic Diversity Among SARS-CoV2 Strains in South America may Impact Performance of Molecular Detection.

Since its emergence in Wuhan (China) on December 2019, the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has rapidly spread worldwide. After its arrival in South America in February 2020, the virus has expanded throughout the region, infecting over 900,000 individuals with approximately 41,000 reported deaths to date. In response to the rapidly growing number of cases, a number of different primer-probe sets have been developed. However, despite being highly specific, most of these primer-probe sets are known to exhibit variable sensitivity. Currently, there are more than 300 SARS-CoV2 whole genome sequences deposited in databases from Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Colombia, Uruguay, Peru, and Argentina. To test how regional viral diversity may impact oligo binding sites and affect test performance, we reviewed all available primer-probe sets targeting the E, N, and RdRp genes against available South American SARS-CoV-2 genomes checking for nucleotide variations in annealing sites. Results from this in silico analysis showed no nucleotide variations on the E-gene target region, in contrast to the N and RdRp genes which showed massive nucleotide variations within oligo binding sites. In lines with previous data, our results suggest that the E-gene stands as the most conserved and reliable target when considering single-gene target testing for molecular diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 in South America.

Mental Health Disorders and Coping Strategies in Healthcare Workers during the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Analytical Cross-Sectional Study in Southeastern Mexico.

Mental health disorders are relatively common in the general population and were already an important issue for the healthcare sector before COVID-19. COVID-19, being a worldwide crucial event and evidently a great stressor has increased both the prevalence and incidence of these. Therefore, it is evident that COVID-19 and mental health disorders are closely related. Moreover, several coping strategies exist to endure said disorders such as depression and anxiety, which are used by the population to confront stressors, and healthcare workers are not the exception. This was an analytical cross-sectional study, conducted from August to November 2022, via an online survey. Prevalence and severity of depression, anxiety, and stress were assessed via the DASS-21 test, and coping strategies were assessed via the CSSHW test. The sample consisted of 256 healthcare workers and of those, 133 (52%) were males with a mean age of 40.4 ± 10.35, and 123 (48%) were females with a mean age of 37.28 ± 9.33. Depression was prevalent in 43%, anxiety in 48%, and stress in 29.7%. Comorbidities were a significant risk factor for both depression and anxiety with an OR of 10.9 and 4.18, respectively. The psychiatric background was a risk factor for depression with an OR of 2.17, anxiety with an OR of 2.43, and stress with an OR of 3.58. The age difference was an important factor in the development of depression and anxiety. The maladaptive coping mechanism was prevalent in 90 subjects and was a risk factor for depression (OR of 2.94), anxiety (OR of 4.46) and stress (OR of 3.68). The resolution coping mechanism was a protective factor for depression (OR of 0.35), anxiety (OR of 0.22), and stress (OR of 0.52). This study shows that mental health disorders are highly prevalent among healthcare workers in Mexico and that coping strategies are associated with their prevalence. It also implies that not only occupations, age, and comorbidities might affect mental health, but also the way patients confront reality and the behavior and decisions they take towards stressors.

The Efficacy and Usability of an Unguided Web-Based Grief Intervention for Adults Who Lost a Loved One During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: The death of a loved one was a challenge many people faced during the COVID-19 pandemic within the context of extraordinary circumstances and great uncertainty. Grief is an unavoidable part of life, and for most people, feelings of grief decrease naturally over time. However, for some people, grieving can become a particularly painful process with clinical symptoms that may require professional help to resolve. To provide psychological support to people who had lost a loved one during the COVID-19 pandemic, an unguided web-based psychological intervention was developed. OBJECTIVE: The main objective of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of the web-based treatment, Grief COVID (Duelo COVID in Spanish; ITLAB), in reducing clinical symptoms of complicated grief, depression, posttraumatic stress, hopelessness, anxiety, and suicidal risk in adults. The secondary aim was to validate the usability of the self-applied intervention system. METHODS: We used a randomized controlled trial with an intervention group (IG) and a waitlist control group (CG). The groups were assessed 3 times (before beginning the intervention, upon completing the intervention, and 3 months after the intervention). The intervention was delivered on the web in an asynchronous format through the Duelo COVID web page. Participants created an account that could be used on their computers, smartphones, or tablets. The evaluation process was automated as part of the intervention. RESULTS: A total of 114 participants were randomly assigned to the IG or CG and met criteria for inclusion in the study (n=45, 39.5% completed the intervention and n=69, 60.5% completed the waitlist period). Most participants (103/114, 90.4%) were women. The results indicated that the treatment significantly reduced baseline clinical symptoms in the IG for all variables (P<.001 to P=.006), with larger effect sizes for depression, hopelessness, grief, anxiety, and risk of suicide (all effect sizes ≥0.5). The follow-up evaluation showed that symptom reduction was maintained at 3 months after the intervention. The results from the CG showed that participants experienced significantly decreased levels of hopelessness after completing the time on the waitlist (P<.001), but their suicidal risk scores increased. Regarding the usability of the self-applied intervention system, the results indicated a high level of satisfaction with the Grief COVID. CONCLUSIONS: The self-applied web-based intervention Grief COVID was effective in reducing symptoms of anxiety, depression, hopelessness, risk of suicide risk, posttraumatic stress disorder, and complicated grief disorder. Grief COVID was evaluated by the participants, who reported that the system was easy to use. These results affirm the importance of developing additional web-based psychological tools to help reduce clinical symptoms in people experiencing grief because of the loss of a loved one during a pandemic. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04638842; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04638842.

Bifurcation analysis of the Microscopic Markov Chain Approach to contact-based epidemic spreading in networks

The dynamics of many epidemic compartmental models for infectious diseases that spread in a single host population present a second-order phase transition. This transition occurs as a function of the infectivity parameter, from the absence of infected individuals to an endemic state. Here, we study this transition, from the perspective of dynamical systems, for a discrete-time compartmental epidemic model known as Microscopic Markov Chain Approach, whose applicability for forecasting future scenarios of epidemic spreading has been proved very useful during the COVID-19 pandemic. We show that there is an endemic state which is stable and a global attractor and that its existence is a consequence of a transcritical bifurcation. This mathematical analysis grounds the results of the model in practical applications.

Prevalence and Risk Factors of Adverse Effects and Allergic Reactions after COVID-19 Vaccines in a Mexican Population: An Analytical Cross-Sectional Study.

Vaccinations have helped to control the COVID-19 pandemic; however, few studies focus on the adverse effects and allergic reactions of these vaccines and fewer have a scope in the Latin American population. The objective of this study was to assess the associations between vaccinations, sex, age, allergic reactions, and adverse effects. This was an analytical cross-sectional study conducted between 1 July and 1 October 2022. The sample consisted of 443 surveyed participants, with a total of 1272 COVID-19 vaccine doses. Seven vaccines (Pfizer BioNTech, Oxford-AstraZeneca, CanSino, Moderna, Johnson and Johnson, Sinovac, and Sputnik V) were evaluated. A total of 12.6% of those surveyed had at least one allergic reaction posterior to vaccination, and females had a greater chance of developing one (p < 0.001, OR 3.1). The most common allergic reaction was chest pain, and Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca were associated with the onset of allergic reactions (p < 0.005). A total of 54.6% of those surveyed developed adverse effects, the most common of which were myalgia, fever, cephalea, asthenia or adynamia, and arthralgia; moreover, older age was associated with the onset of adverse effects (p < 0.5). This study concludes that the BNT162b2 (Pfizer BioNTech) and ChAdOX1 nCOV-19 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) vaccines are strongly associated with the onset of allergic reactions, with ORs of 1.6 (CI 95%, 1.18 to 2.3) and 1.87 (CI 95%, 1.35 to 2.6), respectively. In addition, females have a greater chance of developing allergic reactions associated with COVID-19 vaccinations, and there was a relation found between older age and a greater prevalence of comorbidities, adverse effects after vaccination, and COVID-19 infection after vaccination.

Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices toward the COVID-19 Pandemic in Tabasco, México.

Objectives: In this study, we identify knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAPs) of the people of the State of Tabasco (Mexico) as they influence transmission and mitigation of COVID-19. Methods: We used an Internet-based survey (N=1848) from March to July 2021, with a probabilistic sampling stratified by municipalities. Results: Most respondents demonstrated knowledge about the etiology and symptoms of COVID-19 - they assume that anyone can contract the disease, and at least 53.5% knew that the cause is a virus. They believed that it constitutes a problem for their community due to its easy transmission; however, they consider themselves to be only at medium risk. They have adopted preventive measures such as handwashing, staying home, and social distancing; however, when analyzing protecting the community, they refer to other people as having responsibility for preventing disease spread. Conclusions: Interventions focused on social and cultural contexts are required. Sociodemographic and ideological factors influence disinformation, limited interventions, and cognitive dissonance. This type of research contributes to discovering areas of opportunity for government and public health organizations to prioritize practical actions and reduce eventual outbreaks.

Evaluation in a Cytokine Storm Model In Vivo of the Safety and Efficacy of Intravenous Administration of PRS CK STORM (Standardized Conditioned Medium Obtained by Coculture of Monocytes and Mesenchymal Stromal Cells).

Our research group has been developing a series of biological drugs produced by coculture techniques with M2-polarized macrophages with different primary tissue cells and/or mesenchymal stromal cells (MSC), generally from fat, to produce anti-inflammatory and anti-fibrotic effects, avoiding the overexpression of pro-inflammatory cytokines by the innate immune system at a given time. One of these products is the drug PRS CK STORM, a medium conditioned by allogenic M2-polarized macrophages, from coculture, with those macrophages M2 with MSC from fat, whose composition, in vitro safety, and efficacy we studied. In the present work, we publish the results obtained in terms of safety (pharmacodynamics and pharmacokinetics) and efficacy of the intravenous application of this biological drug in a murine model of cytokine storm associated with severe infectious processes, including those associated with COVID-19. The results demonstrate the safety and high efficacy of PRS CK STORM as an intravenous drug to prevent and treat the cytokine storm associated with infectious processes, including COVID-19.

Evolution and Epidemic Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Colombia: A Year into the Pandemic.

Current efforts to understand the epidemiology, transmission dynamics and emergence of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants worldwide has enabled the scientific community to generate critical information aimed at implementing disease surveillance and control measures, as well as to reduce the social, economic and health impact of the pandemic. Herein, we applied an epidemic model coupled with genomic analysis to assess the SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Colombia. This epidemic model allowed to identify the geographical distribution, Rt dynamics and predict the course of the pandemic considering current implementation of countermeasures. The analysis of the incidence rate per 100,000 inhabitants carried out across different regions of Colombia allowed visualizing the changes in the geographic distribution of cases. The cumulative incidence during the timeframe March 2020 to March 2021 revealed that Bogotá (8063.0), Quindío (5482.71), Amazonas (5055.68), Antioquia (4922.35) and Tolima (4724.41) were the departments with the highest incidence rate. The highest median Rt during the first period evaluated was 2.13 and 1.09 in the second period; with this model, we identified improving opportunities in health decision making related to controlling the pandemic, diagnostic testing capacity, case registration and reporting, among others. Genomic analysis revealed 52 circulating SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Colombia detected from 774 genomes sequenced throughout the first year of the pandemic. The genomes grouped into four main clusters and exhibited 19 polymorphisms. Our results provide essential information on the spread of the pandemic countrywide despite implementation of early containment measures. In addition, we aim to provide deeper phylogenetic insights to better understand the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in light of the latent emergence of novel variants and how these may potentially influence transmissibility and infectivity.

SARS-CoV-2 in Transit: Characterization of SARS-CoV-2 Genomes From Venezuelan Migrants in Colombia.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 from Venezuelan migrants living in Colombia. METHODS: This study sequenced SARS-CoV-2 from 30 clinical specimens collected from Venezuelan migrants. Genomes were compared with the Wuhan reference genome to identify polymorphisms, reconstruct phylogenetic relationships and perform comparative genomic analyses. Geographic, sociodemographic and clinical data were also studied across genotypes. RESULTS: This study demonstrated the presence of six distinct SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating among Venezuelan migrants, as well as a close relationship between SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences obtained from individuals living in the Venezuelan-Colombian border regions of La Guajira (Colombia) and Zulia (Venezuela). Three clusters (C-1, C-2 and C-3) were well supported by phylogenomic inference, supporting the hypothesis of three potential transmission routes across the Colombian-Venezuelan border. These genomes included point mutations previously associated with increased infectivity. A mutation (L18F) in the N-terminal domain of the spike protein that has been associated with compromised binding of neutralizing antibodies was found in 2 of 30 (6.6%) genomes. A statistically significant association was identified with symptomatology for cluster C2. CONCLUSION: The close phylogenetic relationships between SARS-CoV-2 genomes from Venezuelan migrants and from people living at the Venezuela-Colombian border support the importance of human movements for the spread of COVID-19 and for emerging virus variants.

Evaluation of the diagnostic performance of nine commercial RT-PCR kits for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 in Colombia.

The ongoing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has led to the design and development of multiple reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction kits aimed to facilitate the rapid scale-up of molecular testing for massive screening. We evaluated the diagnostic performance of nine commercial kits, which showed optimal performance and high discriminatory power. However, we observed differences in terms of sensitivity, specificity, and E gene Ct Values and discuss these results in light of the influence of SARS-CoV-2 genetic variability and its potential impact in current molecular diagnostic assays.

The arrival and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Colombia.

We performed phylogenomic analysis of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 from 88 infected individuals across different regions of Colombia. Eleven different lineages were detected, suggesting multiple introduction events. Pangolin lineages B.1 and B.1.5 were the most frequent, with B.1 being associated with prior travel to high-risk areas.

Deciphering the introduction and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the Colombian Amazon Basin.

BACKGROUND: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has forced health authorities across the world to take important decisions to curtail its spread. Genomic epidemiology has emerged as a valuable tool to understand introductions and spread of the virus in a specific geographic location. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here, we report the sequences of 59 SARS-CoV-2 samples from inhabitants of the Colombian Amazonas department. The viral genomes were distributed in two robust clusters within the distinct GISAID clades GH and G. Spatial-temporal analyses revealed two independent introductions of SARS-CoV-2 in the region, one around April 1, 2020 associated with a local transmission, and one around April 2, 2020 associated with other South American genomes (Uruguay and Brazil). We also identified ten lineages circulating in the Amazonas department including the P.1 variant of concern (VOC). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study represents the first genomic epidemiology investigation of SARS-CoV-2 in one of the territories with the highest report of indigenous communities of the country. Such findings are essential to decipher viral transmission, inform on global spread and to direct implementation of infection prevention and control measures for these vulnerable populations, especially, due to the recent circulation of one of the variants of concern (P.1) associated with major transmissibility and possible reinfections.

Assessment of impact of the COVID-19 pandemic from the perspective of patients with rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases in Europe: results from the REUMAVID study (phase 1).

AIM: To assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on patients with rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (RMDs). METHODS: REUMAVID is a cross-sectional study using an online survey developed by an international multidisciplinary patient-led collaboration across seven European countries targeting unselected patients with RMDs. Healthcare access, daily activities, disease activity and function, well-being (WHO Five Well-Being Index (WHO-5)), health status, anxiety/depression (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS)) and access to information were evaluated. Data were collected in April-July 2020 (first phase). RESULTS: Data from the first phase included 1800 patients with 15 different RMDs (37.2% axial spondyloarthritis, 29.2% rheumatoid arthritis, 17.2% osteoarthritis and others). Mean age was 53, 80% female and 49% had undertaken university studies. During the beginning of the pandemic, 58.4% had their rheumatology appointment cancelled and 45.6% reported not having received any information relating to the possible impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection in their RMDs, with the main source being patient organisations (27.6%).Regarding habits, 24.6% increased smoking, 18.2% raised their alcohol consumption, and 45.6% were unable to continue exercising. Self-reported disease activity was high (5.3±2.7) and 75.6% reported elevated pain. Half the patients (49.0%) reported poor well-being (WHO-5) and 46.6% that their health had changed for the worse during lockdown. According to HADS, 57.3% were at risk of anxiety and 45.9% of depression. CONCLUSION: Throughout the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, patients with RMDs have experienced disruption in access to healthcare services, poor lifestyle habits and negative effects on their overall health, well-being and mental health. Furthermore, information on COVID-19 has not reached patients appropriately.

National survey regarding the timing of endoscopic procedures during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, several questions have arisen about which endoscopic procedures (EPs) must be performed and which ones can be postponed. The aim of this study was to conduct a nationwide survey regarding the appropriate timing of EPs during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: This prospective study was performed through a nationwide electronic survey. The survey consisted of 15 questions divided into three sections. The first evaluated the agreement for EPs classified as "time sensitive" and "not time sensitive". Two other sections assessed "high-priority" and "low-priority" scenarios. Agreement was considered when > 75% of respondents answered a question in the same direction. RESULTS: The response rate was 27.2% (214/784). Among the respondents, agreement for the need to perform EP in < 72 h was only reached for variceal bleeding (93.4%). Dysphagia with alarm symptoms was the scenario in which the highest percentage of physicians (95.9%) agreed that an EP needed to be performed within a month. Less than 30% of endoscopists would perform an EP within the first 72 h for patients with mild cholangitis, non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding without hemodynamic instability, or severe anaemia without overt bleeding. In time-sensitive clinical scenarios suggestive of benign disease, none of the scenarios reached agreement in any sense. Among the time-sensitive clinical scenarios suggestive of malignancy, > 90% of the surveyed respondents considered that EP could not be postponed for > 8 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: There was no consensus among endoscopists about the timing of EPs in patients with pathologies considered time sensitive or in those with high-priority pathologies. Agreement was only reached in five (17%) of the evaluated clinical scenarios.